Investment returns in 2026: comparing options to decide whether to buy or rent

Why investment returns matter so much for the buy or rent decision in 2026

In 2026, investment returns are a core parameter in any serious "buy or rent" calculation. In the buy-or-rent.net / acheter-ou-louer.com simulator, this is modeled by the investment rate (taux_placement): the annual rate at which your savings could grow if you decide to keep renting instead of buying.

This rate answers a very concrete question: if I don’t buy, how much will the money I don’t put into property earn me? And conversely, what opportunity cost do I accept when I lock capital into a home instead of financial investments?

In 2026, with mortgage rates around 3.6% over 20 years, inflation still above 2%, and regulated savings accounts back near 1.5–2.5%, the "buy or rent" decision depends heavily on what you can realistically expect as investment returns in 2026 on markets or savings products.

What investment returns are realistic in 2026? Benchmarks

The simulator lets you input a single investment rate (taux_placement), but it helps to understand realistic ranges in 2026 to set this parameter correctly.

1. Safe savings (cash, savings accounts, guaranteed funds)

• Regulated savings accounts (e.g., government-backed): around 2% gross in 2026, lower than 2023 peaks.
• Term deposits / money market funds: roughly 2–3% gross depending on the bank and term.
• Guaranteed life insurance funds: average 2025 yields around 2.5–3% gross, often about 2% net of fees and taxes.

For this type of low-risk savings, a taux_placement between 1.8% and 2.5% net is often a reasonable assumption in a 2026 buy or rent simulation.

2. Growth-oriented investments (ETFs, stock portfolios, mixed funds)

• Global equity ETF: historically 6–8%/year gross over long periods, with negative years possible.
• Balanced portfolio 60% stocks / 40% bonds: expected 4–5%/year over 15–20 years.
• Listed real estate / REITs: dividend yields of 4–6% gross, but with price volatility.

For a cautious simulation, many investors use an investment rate of 3.5–4.5% net for a diversified long-term portfolio.

3. Inflation and real returns

Remember that nominal returns must be compared to annual inflation. If your investment yields 3% and inflation is 2%, your real return is only about 1%. In the buy-or-rent.net simulator, taux_placement is entered as a nominal rate, but inflation shows up in:

• rent increases (indexation),
• property price changes,
• the erosion of your capital’s purchasing power.

How the investment rate changes the buy or rent outcome

The heart of the "buy or rent" comparison is simple: if you don’t put savings, notary fees, and monthly mortgage payments into a property, you can invest that money instead. The taux_placement then determines how much that capital might be worth after 15, 20 or 25 years.

Example 1: same monthly budget, different allocation

Simplified assumptions (Europe, 2026):

• Purchase price of apartment: €300,000.
• Transaction costs (notary etc.): 8% or €24,000.
• Down payment: €60,000.
• Loan amount: €240,000 over 20 years.
• Mortgage rate: 3.6%, borrower insurance: 0.3%.
• Total monthly payment (mortgage + insurance): about €1,460.
• Property tax: €1,200/year (≈ €100/month on average).
• Maintenance + building charges: €150/month.

Total monthly homeowner cost ≈ €1,710.

Now the renter’s scenario:

• Initial rent: €1,200/month.
• Annual rent increase: 2%/year.
• Monthly amount that can be invested for the same budget: 1,710 – 1,200 = €510.
• Down payment + transaction costs not spent on buying: 60,000 + 24,000 = €84,000 invested on day one.

Let’s compare two taux_placement scenarios over 20 years.

Scenario A: taux_placement = 2% net (safe savings)

• Initial €84,000 at 2% for 20 years:
  Future value ≈ 84,000 × (1.02)²⁰ ≈ 84,000 × 1.486 ≈ €124,800.
• Monthly €510 at 2% for 20 years:
  Future value ≈ 510 × [((1.02)²⁰ – 1) / 0.02] ≈ 510 × 24.3 ≈ €12,393.

Total renter’s capital ≈ 124,800 + 12,400 ≈ €137,000.

On the homeowner side after 20 years:

• Loan fully repaid, they own the property.
• Assume modest 1.5%/year price growth: value ≈ 300,000 × (1.015)²⁰ ≈ 300,000 × 1.346 ≈ €403,800.
• From this, you’d subtract major repairs, selling costs, etc.

With a low investment rate (2%), owning looks much better in gross value. But this is not personal advice: the real answer depends on actual rent levels, property tax, renovation costs, and local market performance.

Scenario B: taux_placement = 4.5% net (diversified portfolio)

• Initial €84,000 at 4.5% for 20 years:
  Future value ≈ 84,000 × (1.045)²⁰ ≈ 84,000 × 2.41 ≈ €202,400.
• Monthly €510 at 4.5% for 20 years:
  Future value ≈ 510 × [((1.045)²⁰ – 1) / 0.045] ≈ 510 × 31.1 ≈ €15,861.

Total renter’s capital ≈ 202,400 + 15,900 ≈ €218,000.

Now the gap with the homeowner (property ≈ €403,800) is still large but smaller. Once you factor in:

• selling costs (agency fees 3–5%, i.e. €12,000–20,000),
• major works (roof, façade, energy upgrades) for €20,000–30,000 over 20 years,
• various risks (co-ownership decisions, damage, regulation),

the buy or rent comparison becomes very sensitive to the investment rate. From a certain level of investment returns in 2026, staying a renter and investing aggressively can be competitive or even better, depending on your city and rent.

Choosing a realistic investment rate (taux_placement) in the simulator

The buy-or-rent.net / acheter-ou-louer.com simulator asks you to enter an annual investment rate. Here are some practical benchmarks for 2026:

Conservative profile

• Mostly in cash and guaranteed products.
• Goal: capital protection, low volatility.
• Typical taux_placement: 1.5–2.5% net.

Balanced profile

• Blend of ETFs, mixed funds, some safe savings.
• Investment horizon: 15–20 years (similar to a mortgage).
• Typical taux_placement: 3–4% net in the simulator.

Dynamic profile

• High equity exposure (global ETFs, growth stocks), maybe some real estate funds.
• Can tolerate volatility, long-term horizon (> 20 years).
• Typical taux_placement: 4.5–5.5% net, staying prudent.

In all cases, it’s wise to test several values of taux_placement in your buy or rent simulation: 2%, 3.5%, 5%. You’ll see that the tipping point between "buy" and "keep renting" moves a lot as you change the investment rate.

Investment returns vs 3.6% mortgage cost in 2026

Another angle is to compare the mortgage rate directly to the investment rate:

• If your net investment rate > mortgage cost (3.6% + insurance), it can be rational to borrow more and keep more of your capital invested.
• If your net investment rate < mortgage cost, putting more down payment or repaying faster may be mathematically better than investing side by side.

Example: if you can earn 5% net on investments over 20 years while your loan costs 3.6% + 0.3% insurance (≈ 3.9%), the 1.1-point annual spread can add up to tens of thousands of euros over 20 years. The buy-or-rent.net simulator captures this effect via the taux_placement applied to your rent savings and available capital.

Risks behind investment returns: volatility, tax, behavior

A given investment return for 2026 is never guaranteed, especially in equities. Three key risks to keep in mind:

1. Market volatility

A 5%/year investment rate over 20 years may include some –20% years and some +25% ones. If you panic and sell at the bottom, your real return will be much lower than the taux_placement you used in buy-or-rent.net.

2. Taxation

Investment income is usually taxed (flat tax, capital gains tax, etc.). The investment rate you enter should be net of taxes to be comparable with the after-tax cost of a mortgage and the rent you pay.

3. Savings discipline

For the renter + investment strategy to work, you must:

• actually invest the difference between rent and a notional mortgage payment every month,
• avoid withdrawing from this capital for other expenses,
• stay invested through downturns.

The buy or rent simulator assumes perfect discipline. In real life, that’s not always the case, which sometimes makes buying a form of "forced savings" that some people prefer.

Which strategy in 2026: buy or rent depending on investment returns?

There is no universal answer. In 2026, with mortgage rates around 3.6% and a wide range of possible investment returns, the "buy or rent" choice depends on:

• your ability to achieve good investment returns (knowledge, risk tolerance, time horizon),
• the level of rents vs. prices in your area,
• how long you plan to stay in the property (to amortize transaction costs),
• your debt capacity and job stability,
• your attitude toward financial risk.

The role of taux_placement in buy-or-rent.net is precisely to quantify what "I keep renting and invest the difference" might be worth compared with "I buy and pay off a mortgage".

Important: this article is not personalized financial advice. It provides benchmarks and numerical examples to help you set your own assumptions for investment returns in 2026.

Conclusion: vary the investment rate to see the real impact

To recap:

• The investment rate (taux_placement) is a crucial input in any "buy or rent" model: it measures what you could earn by staying a renter and investing.
• In 2026, realistic net returns often fall between 2% and 5% depending on risk profile.
• The higher your investment rate, the more competitive the "rent and invest" strategy becomes versus buying a home.
• It’s essential to test several scenarios (cautious, medium, optimistic) and see how the outcome changes.

The best way to decide whether to buy or rent is to simulate your real-life situation (property price, rent, down payment, term, mortgage rate, notary costs, etc.) and play with the taux_placement parameter.

Try different assumptions for investment returns in 2026, compare the results, and adjust your inputs. To do this with all key costs integrated, use our dedicated tool: Simulate your situation on buy-or-rent.net.